Wednesday 11 June 2014

a.The "Oracle of Omaha" of the East has Spoken

The last part is here:    Property Investment - White Knights

'China's Warren Buffett' Selling Off His China Assets 
On the 8th of Jun 2014, Pacific Century Premium Developments and PCCW announced they had signed an agreement to sell Pacific Century Place.  The disposal of a landmark project in the center of Beijing—two office buildings, two blocks of serviced apartments, and a mall—confirmed that Li Ka-shing undefined and son Richard have turned bearish on Chinese real estate. Li, reputed to be the richest man in Asia, and his family have been on a selling spree in Mainland China since last August. During that time, “Superman,” his nickname because of an almost-infallible sense of market timing, has unloaded Guangzhou’s Metropolitan Plaza, Shanghai’s Oriental Financial Center, and Nanjing’s International Financial Center. With Richard’s disposal of Beijing’s Pacific Century Place, the Li family has reportedly sold about $2.9 billion of Chinese property in less than a year.
Li did not earn his nickname for nothing.  He started as a salesman of plastic flowers and bought big in the wake of riots in Hong Kong at the time of China’s Cultural Revolution, snapping up bargains.  He was also an early investor in Mainland China, jumping in before it became fashionable.  That proved to be smart.  He has, wrote one observer, “a record of being able to predict the mainland property market.” 
Li’s maneuvers are now considered a leading indicator.  So what is the significance of his recent sales?  He told the respected Caixin website, just before the Pacific Century Place announcement, that the disposals of properties in China were “sell-high-buy-low” moves.  As he noted, “The talk of our disinvestment is a big joke.”
Yet Li, No. 20 on last month’s Forbes rich list with a fortune of $31.0 billion, is selling in China and not buying.  And it looks like he is leaving not a moment too soon.  Dongfang Daily, a Chinese paper, quotes an unnamed “industry insider” who tells us Superman “will always sell his assets two to three years ahead of crises.
This time, the crisis will surely hit sooner than that.  Why?  Values are already tumbling.  The sales price for Pacific Century Place, for instance, is thought to be 30% lower than last year’s asking price.
Now that Li is moving out of major China developments, others will probably take the hint.  “Why would you buy anything when Li Ka-shing is selling?” asks Euromoney.  The magazine posed the question in connection with Li dumping assets in his home base, Hong Kong.  There, he has gone on another “de-risking” binge, with among other things, an initial public offering of Power Assets Holdings , a sale of a 24.95% interest in retailer AS Watson, and a disposal of a 60% stake in Terminal 8 West in the Kwai Tsing container port, all this year.  Li also tried to offload supermarket chain ParknShop last year, but the effort failed. 
In March, Li made it clear that just about everything was for sale in the next 12 months.  “We will not rule out the option,” he said.
It would be nice to think that Li, an octogenarian, is dumping assets at the end of an illustrious career so that his China sales say more about him than the state of the Mainland property market.  Yet Li is busy redeploying assets to Europe, indicating he is not exactly contemplating retirement.  And in some ways the Hong Kong disposals are an added indication of his bearishness because the city’s economy is so tightly bound to the rest of China these days.
That’s why Simon Black, an investor and entrepreneur, looks correct.  “Li wants out of China,” he writes“All of it.”  Superman’s sudden move out of Chinese property has been termed an “evacuation,” and it looks like he hopes to get out of the rest of his Chinese investments too.  Li, for instance, has been progressively selling his stock in ChangYuan Group, a Shanghai-listed electronics manufacturer based in Guangdong province.  When viewed in connection with his Mainland China and Hong Kong disposals, this move looks part of a relentless trend. 
The Chinese themselves see special significance in Superman’s sales.  Wang Shi, chairman of China Vanke , China’s largest home builder, says the sell-off of “the smart Mr. Li” is a warning.  Critic Luo Zhiyuan said the sales imply “the coming of a crisis.”
We should probably take our cue from the man called “the Warren Buffett of China.”  After all, the Chinese Buffett is unloading his China assets.  

Mr Li Ka Shing is a clever man. He single-handedly built his empire from the 60s-70s. He was early in his game. Now he has huge number of financial analysts to read for him, he is now more invincible than ever.

Typically Asia will feel the crisis 2 to 3 years after the USA or Europe felt it. The reason is simple:   There is always enough juice to fund the Asian markets for a while from USA or Europe's sales proceeds, before the Asian markets ran out of juice too. From the depth of the USA crisis in Mar 2009 to now 2014, the Asian crisis is now long overdue in outing.

Soon this Asian tsunami is going to whip the asses of all fuckens. As I have always said, this is a rather fair world. You fucked others before, you will get fucked in return. That's what life is all about.

Buy assets only during the bitterest winters. In your terms, buy during the ghost months. Buy during the deadest part of the year - July-September. Buy cash please.

I know life is bitter if we choose to label it so. But, there is always a choice. A choice that we can call it our own. I have made that choice my own.

Depression or self-hate, I don't care, I build my own reality. May Tengri bless those who have been honest and kind. In times of darkness, may there be light and warmth in the cold tunnel ... In time, may we all understand the meaning of living a full life.

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